Will Your Heating Bills Be Higher This Winter?

This winter may be colder than last winter, but heating bills for much of the U.S. might remain the same as last year, according to a government forecast. The biggest exception could be the Midwest, which is expected to see heating bills return to normal after a particularly mild winter.

The main reason energy bills might not change much is due to the low prices of heating fuels like natural gas, which is mostly the fossil fuel methane, and oil, according to the Winter Fuels Outlook compiled by the Energy Information Administration.

This is just a prediction. The winter could end up being colder or warmer than weather forecasters expect. Prices for electricity, gas, oil and propane could fluctuate for hundreds of reasons.

Here’s what the forecast predicts for this winter.

How much you might pay for heating this winter

There are a few different factors that determine how much your heating bill will be. The big ones are the characteristics of your home, the type of fuel you use and the price of that fuel. 

The most common heating fuels are natural gas and electricity. Natural gas is used to heat about 45% of American homes, while electricity is used by about 43%. The EIA also forecasts costs for homes heated by propane (5%, mostly in the upper Midwest) and heating oil (3%, almost entirely in the Northeast).

EIA Administrator, Joe DeCarolis, said the differences in cost don’t imply that consumers could save by switching from one fuel source to another. These figures are just averages. “Expenditures can vary significantly based on the specific characteristics of an individual home,” DeCarolis said in a briefing.

If you use natural gas

The EIA expects the average household that heats with natural gas to spend about $600 total on gas bills from November through March, only the slightest 1% increase from last year. The forecast anticipates higher natural gas consumption due to colder weather, but also that retail gas prices will be about 4% lower than last winter.

Of that $600 estimate over five months, about 80% is for space heating. Gas is also used for other purposes, namely water heating and cooking, which also contributes to the bills.

Regionally, the forecast anticipates slightly lower bills in the West and South, but somewhat higher gas bills in the Midwest, up 11% from last year. That’s due to a forecast of a colder winter compared to last year’s very mild winter in the Midwestern states.

If you use electricity

Electric heating is most common in the Southeast but is used nationwide, and is growing as more people switch from fossil fuels to electric heat pumps. The share of U.S. homes using electricity as their main space heating source is up from 39% five years ago to 43% in 2023, EIA reported.

The outlook anticipates homes that use electricity as their main heating source will spend about $1,050 on average on electric bills over the five colder months, up 2% from last year. This figure includes all electricity uses — the power you use for lights, your dishwasher and charging your phone, for example — and non-heating uses account for a little more than half of it. Regionally, the biggest increases are in the Midwest, due to colder weather, and Northeast, due to higher electric rates.

The EIA doesn’t expect much change in retail electricity prices this winter, especially compared to increases in the last couple of years. That’s partly because there’s generally a lag between changes in wholesale electricity prices and changes in what consumers pay. 

Here’s a look at the EIA’s base case scenarios, with five-month totals for each primary fuel source and region. Remember that each figure includes the total for that fuel, including uses not for heating.

How to save on heating bills this winter

The good news is that while you don’t have much say over the weather or the price of energy, there are some things you can do to minimize how much it costs to heat your home. Here are some tips:

Watch that thermostat: You might be dreaming of a tropical vacation when the temperature drops below zero outside, but don’t try to make your house feel like the beach. Setting your thermostat to a lower temperature can save you money, reduce your energy use and keep your heater from having to work so hard. Setting your thermostat to 68 degrees Fahrenheit and dropping it by several degrees at night can make a big difference.

Fix air leaks: Drafty windows and cracks around doors can lead you to waste money heating up the entire neighborhood. Seal those up with weatherstripping or other materials. If your home’s envelope is sealed tight, you’ll keep more of that hot air in and colder air out — keeping more money in your pocket.

Don’t heat the whole house: If you’re mostly using one or two rooms, you can set the central furnace to an even lower temperature and warm up those areas with a space heater. CNET did the math and found you can get significant cost savings by using a space heater, especially if your furnace runs on something other than natural gas.