We’re at a make-or-break moment for US climate goals

Greenhouse gas emissions are falling in the US thanks to major investments in clean energy and transportation — but it’s not happening fast enough, a new report shows. As a result, the US isn’t on track to meet the ambitious climate goals set by the Biden administration as the president enters his final months in office. Political upheaval and soaring electricity demand from AI, crypto, and EVs risk pushing those goals further out of reach.

The latest forecast on clean energy and climate progress in the US, from research firm Rhodium Group, paints a sobering picture of what’s at stake this election season. The Biden administration has managed to push through landmark climate legislation that could get rid of a significant chunk of America’s carbon footprint. But those policies are in jeopardy with a conservative supermajority in the Supreme Court and the prospect of another Donald Trump presidency. Even if climate policies survive, they’re not enough to keep up with new technologies that are making it harder to rein in greenhouse gas emissions. 

Rhodium modeled out future outcomes based on federal and state policies and different economic factors. This year, Rhodium also had to weigh the potential impact of a boom in energy-hungry data centers used to train AI or mine crypto. They’re expected to add even more pressure to an aging grid that was already bracing for rising electricity demand from EV charging and manufacturing.

By 2035, electricity demand could be 24 to 29 percent higher than it was in 2023, according to Rhodium. Transportation would account for nearly half of that growth. But data centers have also become a major player, expected to make up 22 percent of the added electricity demand. And unlike EVs, which displace existing fossil fuel demand for transportation, data centers generally represent completely new energy demand. 

Based on current policies in play, US greenhouse gas emissions would fall by between 32 to 43 percent by the end of the decade compared to a 2005 baseline, according to Rhodium’s estimates. But in a scenario with data center electricity demand growing nearly threefold by 2035, power sector emissions would rise 56 percent compared to Rhodium’s central estimate. The US could potentially meet its goal several years late, reducing emissions between 38 to 56 percent by 2035.

That entails steeper annual drops in pollution than the US has managed over the past couple of decades. And it only works with new policies set under the Biden administration aimed at cleaning up emissions from the power sector, transportation, and oil and gas fields. 

Shortly after stepping into office, Biden recommitted the US to the Paris agreement to stop climate change — a deal Trump tried to exit. As part of the agreement, Biden set a 2030 goal for slashing US climate pollution in half compared to a 2005 baseline. It was ambitious but roughly in line with what research shows is necessary to meet the overarching goals of the Paris agreement. 

But each of those policies faces legal challenges. Landmark decisions from the Supreme Court since the Trump administration have curbed federal agencies’ authority to regulate industry. Courts aside, climate policies could unravel if Trump is reelected. 

Trump says he’d try to pull the US out of the Paris agreement again, and the GOP’s stance on energy in its official platform is to “drill, baby, drill” (in capital letters). If Republicans gain control of the White House and Congress come November, they could also work to dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law in 2022 as the biggest investment in climate and clean energy to date in the US. Notably, crypto and Silicon Valley bigwigs have started to cozy up with the Trump campaign with the GOP platform pledging to “champion innovation” (AKA cut back on regulation) in crypto and AI.

“The person who wins the White House in November will have the chance to leave their mark on [greenhouse gas] regulations, either defending them in court and pursuing additional action or revoking them wholesale,” Rhodium’s analysis says. 

At this point, the US likely has to pass more legislation to reach its current 2030 climate goals. That was an uphill battle even during the Biden administration. And whatever the US does on climate moving forward, of course, has a global impact. The US has more data centers than any other country and is the biggest hub for Bitcoin mining. It’s also still the world’s top oil and gas producer and the country with the most carbon emissions after China.

That doesn’t mean the US has to sacrifice economic growth for a healthy climate, the Rhodium report points out. Economic strength and greenhouse gas emissions have “largely decoupled,” it says, with the US economy growing faster than its carbon footprint in eight of the past 10 years.