Chocolate Is Currently the Cheapest It Will Be for Awhile

Over the past few years we’ve faced sticker shock at the grocery store and dealt with the increasing costs of food, from eggs to butter and sugar. We’ve also swallowed the bitter pill of shrinkflation, or paying the same or more for less, when it comes to our favorite snacks.

Now, higher costs are coming for our chocolate, and I, for one, am not happy about it. Chances are, I won’t be alone in my wallowing. According to the National Confectioners Association, 65% of consumers like me turn to chocolate as an affordable treat.

But just how bad will it be? 

In December, cocoa prices soared to $12,000 per ton, about three times higher than they were at the beginning of 2024. The last time cocoa prices made news like this was nearly 50 years ago when pricing exceeded $4,000 a ton in the late-1970s. The common factor between the two price hikes? A decrease of crops in West Africa, which produces about 80% of the world’s cocoa, due to disease, climate change, and weather.

How Much Will Chocolate Prices Rise This Year?

“Pricing has yet to pick up meaningfully, but we expect this to accelerate potentially to the low-teens in 2025,” says Celine Pannuti, head of European Staples & Beverages at J.P. Morgan.  

Chocolatier Jacques Torres, known as “Mr. Chocolate,” opened his first independent shop, Jacques Torres Chocolate, and production facilities in the DUMBO neighborhood of Brooklyn, New York in December 2000.

“To tell you the truth, I’m really worried for my business,” Torres tells Allrecipes. 

He explains that in the past, if he made a chocolate bar with almonds or pistachios, not only was the ratio of chocolate in the bar less because of the nuts, but the cocoa used to make the chocolate cost less than the nuts. 

“Now the pistachio is becoming less expensive than the chocolate, so we’ll see the ratio changing in those products,” says Torres.

With the rising cost of cocoa, it will be us, the consumers, who will literally pay the price at the stores and markets. Some chocolate makers have already increased their prices by about 1.5% throughout the year, but it’s in 2025 that our wallets may feel the squeeze: experts are forecasting an increase of about 10% in the coming year.

“We see the chocolate market set for inflation largely unprecedented in recent history,” says Pannuti.

“If I want my doors to stay open, I will have to [raise my prices],” explains Torres. “I have to pay rent, taxes, employees, equipment—name it, everything needs to be paid.”

Torres, who is not a fan of shrinkflation, believes in transparency with his customers and is endeavoring to educate them on why he is having to increase his prices. He recently shared a chart of cacao futures for the past few years with his corporate clients so they can see firsthand what’s happening in the market. 

He believes in being transparent with his consumer clients, too.

“If I give six ounces instead of eight ounces [in a product], I need to tell my customer it’s because of the price [of cocoa],” says Torres. “We have to educate the customer and tell them the reason why, otherwise they’re going to think we are crooks. Not everybody knows what’s going on with the price of cocoa.”

It seems, though, that no matter how high the cost of chocolate rises, we will still indulge in sweet bites. According to an October 2024 report released by the National Confectioners Association, Americans are leaving room in their budgets to treat themselves and others to chocolate[SB8] .

One thing I know for certain—there will always be room in my budget for chocolate. 

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to take advantage of those post-holiday chocolate sales.