Antarctica’s ‘Doomsday Glacier’ Could Be Gone by 23rd Century

Antarctica’s so-called Doomsday Glacier could be entirely gone in less than two centuries. That’s one of the frightening conclusions reached by a team of U.S. and British scientists, who have spent the past six years studying the massive ice mass.

Though not the largest glacier in the world in terms of total area, Thwaites Glacier is the widest, measuring 75 miles (120 kilometers) across. At 74,000 square miles (192,000 square kilometers), the glacier is larger than Florida and is over 6,500 feet (2,000 meters) thick in some places. Because it’s so massive, the glacier contains copious amounts of water. Melting from Thwaites already accounts for 4% of global sea level rise, and should it collapse, it would lead to a further rise of over two feet (65 centimeters). That would be catastrophic, and it now appears to be well on its way to happening by the 23rd century, according to the new data.

Since 2018, the glacier has been the object of study of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration. Earlier this week, the researchers presented their observations at a meeting of the British Antarctic Survey. The glacier was first discovered in 1940 and has been steadily getting smaller ever since, a trend the team reported will only speed up.

“Thwaites has been retreating for more than 80 years, accelerating considerably over the past 30 years, and our findings indicate it is set to retreat further and faster,” said Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist at the British Antarctic Survey, and member of the ITGC, in a press release. “There is a consensus that Thwaites Glacier retreat will accelerate sometime within the next century. However, there is also concern that additional processes revealed by recent studies, which are not yet well enough studied to be incorporated into large scale models, could cause retreat to accelerate sooner.”

The effects of Thwaites collapsing would be severe. One recent estimate predicted sea levels on the U.S. coast are expected to rise by as much as 18 inches (46 centimeters) by 2050. That would result in catastrophic flooding, according to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. The situation could worsen even faster if the shrinking rate of Thwaites increases.

There’s been little room for optimism in recent years. In 2022, another study examined underwater ridges below the glacier, and found that at one time it moved nearly twice as fast as its current rate. That’s troubling information, as scientists worry it could once more speed up, which could further destabilize a tenuous situation.

Previous ITGC research revealed that, while Thwaites is melting slower than some models had predicted, some of that degradation is occurring in cracks at weak points within the ice structure, further raising the risk of collapse.

While this is certainly alarming, the ITGC scientists said reducing global emissions would have a positive effect. Unfortunately, it would take a while to manifest, as much of the melting is being driven by the warming of deep ocean water, which would take a while to cool again, even if emissions dropped to zero.

All told, the data is depressing. We’d normally add a pithy remark to close out the article, but that seems inappropriate. We just hope we didn’t ruin your Friday.