We live in an Age of Uncertainty. Not just because of the global threats to societies, but many face unprecedented insecurity at a personal level, particularly the younger generations. None of us know what is going to happen, and we might as well face up to it. And that’s the first lesson in making predictions: Don’t make predictions. Meaning, don’t just make a guess as to what will happen. Instead, embrace uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity. Here’s how:
Think Fast and Slow About Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a “conscious awareness of ignorance.” It is a personal relationship with anything we don’t know—we may be ignorant about what is going on at the moment, or what will happen in the future. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman identified two broad ways of thinking; using our fast, unconscious, gut reactions, or going slowly and deliberately through a problem. Mostly it’s fine to think fast about the future: when we are driving or choosing a film to watch. But for big decisions, it is better to just take our time.
Conjuring Up Possible Futures
The first step in thinking slowly about the future is to visualize the ways things could play out. Organizations may create scenarios reflecting optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, and may use a “red team” to deliberately think of what could go wrong. The UK’s Ministry of Defence even employs science-fiction writers to bring some serious imagination to possible futures.
Individually, you could adopt a “red-team mindset,” in which you consciously critique our standard view, whether you are the sort who tends to look on the bright side, or expect the worst.
The Problem With Just Using Words to Describe Uncertainty
Vague verbiage about uncertainty is easily misinterpreted. It’s easy to say that something “might” or “could” happen, or even that it is “likely” to occur. But what do these words actually mean? In 1961, the CIA was planning the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba to topple Fidel Castro’s revolutionary government, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff considered the chance of success to be just 30 percent—that is, a 70 percent chance of failure.
This was reported as a “fair” chance, which they thought would be interpreted as “not too good.” But President Kennedy read the word optimistically and approved the invasion, which was an utter fiasco and pushed Cuba even further into Soviet influence.
Putting Numbers on Our Ignorance
Events such as the Bay of Pigs disaster have encouraged intelligence agencies to align words with rough numbers. For example, if someone in the UK intelligence service claims an event is “likely,” this has an official interpretation of between 55 percent and 75 percent chance. A similar scale is used in climate science, where a “very likely” event means 90 percent to 95 percent.
As individuals, we might try to rank possible futures in terms of their likelihood, and then give them some rough magnitudes, say that getting a particular job is a “2 out of 10” event. With some imagination, we could think of all our possible future trajectories shooting out like spaghetti; and in around 20 percent of these, you will get the job.
What Makes a Good Forecaster?
“Superforecasters” can assess good probabilities for the future, where “good” means (a) they are “calibrated,” so that when they say “70 percent chance,” those events happen in around 70 percent of cases, and (b) they are “discriminatory,” so that high probabilities tend to be given to events that happen. They typically have an openness to new knowledge and are happy to work in teams, have an insight into their own thinking and all their biases, and have the humility to acknowledge uncertainty, admit errors, and change their minds. They are akin to Isaiah Berlin’s so-called “foxes,” willing to adapt to new evidence, rather than “hedgehogs,” stuck in a single way of thinking.
Acknowledging the Unknown
Donald Rumsfeld immortally described the “known knowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns”—those things that were beyond our imagination and had not even been thought of. When we acknowledge this possibility, this is known as “deep uncertainty,” when we can’t even list the possible futures, even with a red-team mindset. Rumsfeld didn’t, however, include the “unknown knowns”—those assumptions that we make without even thinking. These can be the most dangerous delusions, and they’re why we need critical friends to help us out of our fixed tramlines.
Being Prepared to Be Surprised
In 1650, Oliver Cromwell’s army was camped outside Edinburgh, and he was trying to persuade the Scottish Kirk to withdraw their support for the return of Charles II. Cromwell wrote, “Is it therefore infallibly agreeable to the Word of God, all that you say? I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken.” This appeal was ignored, and Cromwell soundly defeated the Scots at the Battle of Dunbar.
“Cromwell’s Rule” means that you should think like a fox, and at all times have the humility to think it possible you may be mistaken. By just entertaining a small probability of being wrong, you can rapidly adapt to surprising new information.
The Role of Luck
Things may turn out well for you, or they may turn out badly, largely due to factors outside your control, i.e., luck. Philosophers have identified three main types. Constitutive luck: who you were born as, your time and place in history, your parents, your genes, your inbuilt characteristics, and early upbringing. This is extremely important—you need to make the best of the hand you’ve been dealt at birth. Circumstantial luck: being at the right place at the right time, or the wrong place at the wrong time. Resultant luck: how things just happened to turn out for you at that instant.
But it’s not all outside your control—“lucky” people exploit opportunities, have positive expectations, and are resilient to things going wrong.
Living With Uncertainty
Being uncertain is part of being human, and few of us want to know what we are going to get for Christmas, what the result of a recorded football match will be, or even, were it possible, when we were going to die. Uncertainty is unavoidable, and we may react to that awareness of ignorance in a variety of ways—we may feel anxious or excited, hopeful or fearful, depending on the circumstances and our personal tolerance of not-knowing.
We cannot avoid uncertainty. But with a bit of slow thinking we may be able to embrace it, be humbled by it, and even enjoy it.
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