Premium Domain Names for Sale at CrocoDom.com
By
Matt Whittaker
CNN Underscored Money
Published 1:00 AM EDT, Fri April 19, 2024
Alexandr Vorontsov/iStock
After thousands of years of use, copper continues to play a key role in the global economy and human development.
That will become even more true as the energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy gains steam.
“Copper really is the commodity for the future and particularly for the future of electrification,” said Jason Crawshaw, portfolio manager with investment firm Polaris Capital Management.
Like any investment, there are risks and benefits to investing in copper.
Supply and demand fundamentals are the main drivers of the price of copper.
Copper has long been used in piping, electronics and electrical systems in cars, homes and businesses. Now, more wind and solar farms and the infrastructure needed to connect them to the grid, not to mention electric vehicles, are expected to generate a step change in demand.
The economy in China plays a huge role in copper prices. The Asian nation is the largest consumer of copper in the world because of its insatiable need to build its own infrastructure as well as manufacture finished goods for export.
Investors who want to put money in copper will need to pay attention not only to global economic trends but also to trends in China, such as in its massive property sector.
Supply dynamics are the flip side of the copper price coin — in this case, a pre-1857 United States penny, before the US Mint started alloying them with other metals.
“Many of the most productive copper mines across the world are seeing declining production rates,” Crawshaw said. “The number of new really productive projects coming online are fairly limited; as a result, the copper market should remain tight for the next decade.”
There are several ways investors can get exposure to copper, including equities and futures.
Shares of publicly traded copper mining companies are Crawshaw’s preferred method for investing in copper.
“If you pick the right company, that miner can deliver a couple of things,” he said. “One: If the copper price goes higher, you get a lot more economic leverage and investment return leverage than you would holding the physical metal. Two: If you are able to select copper companies that not only have good current copper operations but have the opportunity to grow capacity in a market that is tight, that can be an optimal mechanism.”
But there are also risks to copper mining stocks.
Labor and material cost inflation can be a real drag on share prices. Other factors that can affect miners include aging equipment, lower-than-expected grades (the concentration of copper in mined ore), accidents and political risk.
There are additional risks for copper companies in the exploration or development phase that don’t yet have cash flow from an operating mine. These so-called “junior miners” can provide strong returns as they hit certain milestones in the development of a mine, such as securing permits or publishing drill results that prove there is a certain amount of reserves in the ground. But their shares can also drop precipitously if something goes wrong, such as an orebody not panning out as hoped.
To help reduce the risk of owning single copper stocks, investors can consider copper exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that wrap many different miners under a single ticker symbol, such as the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) or the Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ).
Another class of ETFs invests in copper futures contracts instead of mining stocks, including the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER). But investors should be aware that futures-based ETF performance can significantly diverge from the performance of the underlying futures contracts in a rising-copper-price environment. That’s because, as time goes by, less expensive nearby contracts have to be rolled into more expensive, further-out contracts.
Still, holding a copper futures ETF can make investors money, with shorter-term holding times tracking more closely to the futures themselves.
Investing in copper futures is often best left to sophisticated individual investors or institutional investors because it involves leverage and the requirement to roll over contracts unless you want to take delivery, which most investors don’t and your brokerage probably wouldn’t allow anyway. For one thing, deliveries of CME Group copper contracts are of 25,000 pounds each and must be shipped to an exchange-approved warehouse.
Individual investors who really want to get their hands on physical copper can go to an online dealer like they would for gold or silver bullion.
But you’ll pay a premium over the spot copper price. If you amass enough, you might want to get it insured. And you’ll have to deal with storage, which can become an issue because stockpiling any substantial monetary value in copper takes up much more space than gold or silver.
Over the long term, the outlook for copper seems bright.
In a recent note, strategists at Macquarie said they expect a copper market deficit this year, a rebalancing from 2025 to 2027 and then a deficit from 2027 to 2030 will expand into a 1.3 million metric ton supply gap.
“If global copper supply issues continue and demand for renewable energy transition continues, copper prices are likely to reach unprecedented highs,” said Jena Santoro, senior manager of intelligence solutions at Everstream Analytics, a supply chain risk management firm.
If you decide to take the plunge and invest in copper, the best way will depend on how much money you can set aside, what your risk tolerance is and what your timeline is.
For copper mining stocks, a buy-and-hold strategy might be best if you’re dealing with strong, well-established miners. The same might also be true for ETFs. But keep in mind that while ETFs don’t have the same risk as investing in a single stock, one underperforming company will reduce a fund’s overall performance even if other component companies are doing well.
If you want to take more risk for potentially more reward, speculators who aren’t fainthearted can make — or lose — a lot of money in copper futures.
Like all commodities, copper can be volatile, and investment pros say an allocation to commodities in general should only make up 5% to 10% of a portfolio.
So, while copper isn’t considered a safe investment, it is tied to economic growth and can prove lucrative if invested at the right time.
Editorial Disclaimer: Opinions expressed here are the author’s alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, airlines, hotel chain, or other commercial entity and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of such entities.
This content is for educational purposes only and is not intended and should not be understood to constitute financial, investment, insurance or legal advice. All individuals are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified financial professional before making any financial, insurance or investment decisions.
Note: While the offers mentioned above are accurate at the time of publication, they’re subject to change at any time and may have changed or may no longer be available.
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