Gas Prices Are Up This Spring. What Can You Expect to Pay This Summer?

Every summer, when I go to fuel up my car, I feel like gas prices have skyrocketed out of nowhere. One day I’m paying about $3.50 for gas, and then the next day it’s 80 degrees and gas is $4 (or more). It can feel like these price increases are coming out of nowhere and that the cost of gas per gallon will just never go down, but that’s not always the case. 

Gas prices through the year can see high levels of volatility, with many factors affecting the price you pay at the pump. 

If you feel like gas has gotten a bit more expensive this spring, you’re not alone. GasBuddy told CNET that the average price of gas in the US has been holding steady around $3.60 per gallon this spring, up a few cents from the same time last year. But there is good news: Gas prices could get a bit cheaper this summer. Read on to find out why gas prices have seemed to spike, and what to expect this summer. 

For more, here’s how to beat gas prices this summer and what to know about shrinkflation. 

Why is gas more expensive this spring? 

Gas prices are slightly higher than they were at this time last year; AAA cites the current average price as being $3.67, which is $0.08 higher than it was at this time last year. 

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNET that this recent rise in price is largely due to the switch to the more-expensive summer-grade gasoline mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency each year. 

Typically, refineries will switch the blends of gasoline seasonally to make sure that the gas in your car is performing the best it can with changes in temperature. Naturally, summer gasoline blends are designed to perform better in higher temperatures. The EPA requires all refineries to have the blend by May 1, and gas stations have to have it by June 1.

Refineries are nearing completion on the switch and will begin boosting output, De Haan said.

Will gas be more expensive this summer?

The good news is that this spring’s price increase probably won’t hang around forever. In its latest gas price analysis, AAA noted that “tepid demand, increasing supply and falling oil prices could lower pump prices,” but consumer beware: Memorial Day travel demand might cause you to see a slight bump in prices. 

A spokesperson for AAA told CNET that while the motor club does not “predict specific gas prices beyond a week or two, “[it does] not see gas prices spiking this summer and [thinks] they will follow a path similar to last year.” For reference, last year prices rose moderately early in the summer and flattened out heading into fall.

I’ll practice patience heading into summer and hope that predictions hold true and prices remain steady instead of climbing to nearly $5 a gallon as they did in the summer of 2022.

For more, here’s what to know about summer 2024 weather and how to avoid mobile roaming charges while traveling.